Monday, July 21, 2008

Market Timing

There is no better and wise way to beat the market by buy low and sell high. A good example is Bank of America (BAC). Even though I had a strong faith in this stock when it was at $19 a share (the 52-week low), I did not purchase the stock at $27.5. Instead, I got into GE. A couple of weeks later, BAC is at $30 and GE is now at $27.92. (Btw, I got into BAC at $50 range). Another good sample that applies to the normal people’s career is the current CFO of KB Home, Don Cecere, who got into the homebuilder industry at the height of the boom and make bundle of money and quit at the beginning of the downturn. He sure knows how to time his career market.

Market timing - identify the right opportunity – is a very hard thing to do, particularly during extreme markets (very low or very high). Every move is against the public belief, and most of the time you have to move your resources from other investments to invest in something that may not be successful. Market timing trade may not work. That not only requires a total devotion to the study of the market and take a calculated risk, but also requires a good understanding to the “big picture” (including self and the market) and discipline. Lesson learned: be decisive, disciplined, never regret for what you done but learn from it (for this is what the Lord blesses you with, and you will never take it away to the next life), study the market and understand the environment around you carefully, and seek for wisdom and blessing from the Lord.

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